by Stuart Fewster

Modelling cause and consequence: real history?

You can download the file appeasementl.xls or appeasement.csv. [Right click on the links and select 'Save Target As' or 'Save Link As'. Save the file on to your hard disk. Open up the document in your spreadsheet program.] Make sure you choose the right version: xls is a file for use in Microsoft Excel while a csv file can be opened in any spreadsheet program.

Most of the time things work from easy to hard. Easy modelling at the beginning and harder at the end. Not here. The model building described in this section is much easier, and quicker, to complete than those outlined above. No advanced ICT skills required from the teacher here, but you may not entirely approve of the approach to history that I am suggesting, unless perhaps you enjoyed science-fiction writer Isaac Asimov's Foundation series as a young adult.

Some years ago I produced a booklet on Japanese history in which I included a picture of a set of scales. On each end of the scales there were a number of boxes. They were different sizes and were labelled to illustrate factors related to decision by the Americans to use of the atom bomb on Japan in 1945. The idea was to show graphically the relative importance of causes related to a significant historical event. After this I often considered ways of reproducing this 'cause model' in a form that pupils could interact with using ICT tools. Last May I was reminded that I had completed my share of the end of KS3 ICT assessment. The strand allotted to the humanities subjects in our school is modelling. I had planned to do an exercise related to rationing in World War Two, using Excel to help test different ways of allocating coupons for clothes and food etc.

For reasons with which you all will be familiar, such as completing reports, marking coursework etc, I never got round to finding enough data to complete setting up the exercise. The computer room was booked. I still had to do an assessment and report levels for each pupil in year 9. What could I do that was relevant? We had previously been looking at the background to WWII and the issue of appeasement. Pupils had constructed a time line (using pencil and ruler not ICT) showing the key events of this period as part of their work. Time to take a chance. With an introduction that improved a little with each successive class I explained the task and the pupils launched into it!

As an exercise it was by no means perfect. Some were too quick, some had a worrying lack of understanding of what we had only just covered in our history lessons, but the simple modelling side worked quite well.

After a very brief reminder of the work we had covered and an even shorter explanation of modelling, these are the instructions, roughly as I scrawled them on the white board:

1. Decide on how many points you wish to allocate - it can be 50, 60 or 100 etc. You can change this number later. This number represents the point at which relations between Britain/France and Germany will become so bad that war will break out.
   
   
2. List four of the main events leading to WWII that were on your timeline. For example, German troops entering the Rhineland or Union with Austria etc. You will be adding more events to your list later.
   
   
3. Allocate points to each of the events you have selected. The more important you think the event was in leading to war the more points you should give it.
   
   
4. You must distribute all your points until you reach your chosen total/target which represents war starting; no changing history!
   
   
5. Think about whether events nearer 1939 should have a greater weighting than those earlier.

 

One example from a lower ability set. Some had to be reminded to let Excel do the adding through its sum formula available on the tool bar.

Pupils constructed their spreadsheet and added some basic formatting. Some had to be instructed to let Excel do the adding automatically because without that they had not created anything that could be argued as an ICT based model.

Most pupils quickly got the idea that they could experiment with different combinations of scores. After a suitable period, when the better ones had run out of things to do and I had talked to as many as possible about how they had allocated their points/scores, I stopped the group again.

We had a brief discussion of the limitations of the exercise so far and then added additional instructions:

1. Now add some more events from your timeline to your list, e.g. the 'axis agreement'. You will have to reallocate your scores and you may want to alter your 'war = total'.
2. Be ready to justify your decisions.
3. When you finish, experiment with improving the model. Try graphing your results, adding some more formatting and experimenting with different formulas for different types of events.
4. Try to work out a way of introducing the idea of 'appeasement' as a separate factor.

The whole exercise fitted comfortably within a one hour lesson, whatever the abilities of the pupils involved. Based on my observations of the way pupils worked I was able to award ICT levels which ranged between 3 and 6, with some pupils managing to produce a weighted formula distinguishing between longer term events and those that more immediately lead to war.

As for most there was only limited use of formulae in this exercise, some people might argue these upper level grades are a little generous. Fortunately my scores were being averaged with those from other strands and subjects which might minimise the affect any of my poorer judgements.

You may well think this exercise at best is unhistorical, or even that it's bad ICT, but some of the discussion that it generated was superb. Now I know that in future I can do this type of exercise properly. Even plan it in advance! There are key topics in our GCSE course and coursework where I can see it will fit well.

Some ideas?

• Why did this medical discovery happen then?
• Which was the most important factor in Custer's defeat at the Little Bighorn: lack of repeating rifles, poor tactics, numerical factors?
• Why did Henry VIII build a castle at Pendennis? To get a level four mark for this coursework exercise there should be some account of hierarchy of cause.
• Why did William win at Hastings?
• What were the most important causes of WWI?

The modelling exercise with the spreadsheet could be linked to source work, essay building or other approaches to create better history lessons. Also any model can be made increasingly complex, extending both software skills and history thinking at the same time. No need for artificial differentiation. Like most things to do with ICT it is the process, not the outcome that is most important. The final print out, if you bother to do one, might look pretty but it will tell you almost nothing about the pupils' ICT capability and maybe not a whole lot more about their qualities as historians. The bottom line is that this type of exercise is quick, easy to carry out, and promotes excellent dialogue between pupils.